What a day yesterday- Not only for the results but some cracking races. Still can’t get over how good Constitution Hill was/is! I am sure we will all not forget that leap at the last for some time. It really does show the intelligence of the horse- lots would have fell there.
We finished up with three winners and Corach Rambler at a nice 6/1. Also unlucky with Byker and Risk Belle not being able to get past the Gordon Elliot trained Jazzy Matty.
The NAP Galliard Du Mesnil landed (arguably luckily) at Evens to finish off a cracking day. Prior to the race we tipped the horse for the Grand National at 16/1- now 10/1.
Cheltenham- Day Two
Lets get straight in to day two of the meet, also known as Ladies Day..
I would like to make clear that this looks to be the hardest day of the week. The Ballymore is not as clear-cut as it usually is and we have the minefield that is the Coral cup to delve in to. I would recommend smaller stakes and to keep your risk management as tight as possible.
13:30 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m5f)
NTN thoughts..
Selection IMPAIRE Et Passe 15/8
Impaire Et Passe, is potentially the latest Mullins superstar and a horse well talked up on the preview circuit. He hasn’t beaten a lot but what he has beaten he has done well. Another Mullins, Gaelic Warrior, has also has tonnes of ability and his switch to this race over the Supreme is interesting but all the hype is for IEP. Of the other strong contenders, Good Land has a similar profile to Marine Nationale and Barry Connell was bullish about both of their chances and we know what happened yesterday. Hermes Allen has done nothing wrong but win the Challow 0/18 for Challow winners but the form of that race has been franked with multiple winners. Hermes will go from or near the front and then it’s a case of if he can kick on or will he be overtaken by IEP, Good Land or GW.
14:10 (RSA) Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1, 3m)
NTN thoughts..
Gerri Colombe is very short but is probably the right favourite and they reportedly have high aspirations for him. The real whacker loves it around Cheltenham, jumps well and will stay all day so looks an ew shout. Skelton’s have a good front runner in Galia Des Liteaux who needs soft ground. As do both Thunder Rock and Adamantly Chosen although probably more good to soft. Also the forgotten Sir Gerhard! Can he spark back into life here? Unlikely as not the force he was. It looks hard to see past Gerri Colombe today and the books might have it right again but will let you know whether we’re looking at ew value.
14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3, C1. 2m 5f)
Stats for race:
9 of the last 14 winners had a rating of 140 or higher.
23 of the last 28 winners were aged 6 or 7 years old.
Of the past 18 2nd season hurdlers, 12 have been winners.
Of the past 22 winners, 18 had raced less than 10 times over hurdles.
13 of the last 14 winners had previously run at the Festival, 8 of which placed in the top 4.
14 of the last 14 winners were from among the top 8 horses in terms of weight.
13 of the last 17 winners did not win their previous race.
21 out of the last 28 winners won earlier that season and came from among the top 7 horses in terms of betting odds.
Algo Selections- San Salvador 16/1, Beacon Edge 12/1
Brennan Selection- Run For Oscar 9/1
High-class stayer on the flat in the past. Now trained by Byrnes and appears to be well-handicapped, carrying 147 with an additional 5lb off Philip's claim. If the ground is good to soft today, the 7 place pay-out makes this a great value bet.
15:30 Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)
Thoughts from Goose..
Selection -
Edwardstone (7/4)
There has been support for Energumene as well as a bit of a drift for EDWARDSTONE (7/4) here, however I think that may be due to the ground situation and weather forecast. That being said Edwardstone’s form on soft isn’t exactly all doom and gloom. The pair faced off for the first time in the rearranged Clarence House at Cheltenham on the new course where both were beaten by Editeur Du Gite (reopposes here) however Edwardstone was the one who went closest, as he headed EDG briefly before being pegged back. I believe he burned all his petrol up coming from as far back as he did and had none left to fend off the battling back EDG, whilst Energumene was well beaten before a poor jump at the last (apparently the colours weren’t helpful) Tom Cannon was tracking Energumene that day and think he won’t be sitting that far off the pace in this, and should he be more prominent I think he wins.
16:10 Cross Country Chase
Posted in Discord community
16:50 Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3, C1. 2m)
Posted in Discord community
17:30 Champion Bumper (Grade 1, C1. 2m)
Thoughts from Kurtis..
Selection -
Chapeau De Soleil.
Really tough bumper race this year - taking a chance on Chapeau De Soleil, believe he can turn that form around with Better Days Ahead, especially now on a left handed track. He’s bred to stay all day and I think come the end of the day with the track cut up, this could become a war of attrition and I fancy him to run into a place, or even better. He should relish the ground. 20/1 EW.
Best of luck as always and remember - it is US vs BOOKMAKERS!!
Regards,
The Algo Academy
