We hope everyone has had an enjoyable week. Snow in March? No thanks and thank god it won’t have affected much of the preparation for Cheltenham.
The main talking point for any horse racing fan is the big meet that takes place in 3 days time. We have pulled together some thoughts and selections from a number of preview nights and look forward to sharing that with you later in the newsletter.
Lots of the juice in the main races seems to be had, at this ‘calm before the storm’ phase it may be best to look elsewhere and aim to scope out value in potential race switches and the bigger handicap races. One thing for sure on value for the big meet is that this is not it…
Nearly a grand for 4 nights in a metal cabin with cold showers and limited wifi- I am sure it would be fun after 20 pints of Guinness but no wonder only 16 were sold!
Marie’s Rock - Stayers or Mares?
One of the main talking points of the week is where Nicky Henderson is sending Marie’s Rock, does she step up in distance to the Stayers Hurdle or does she defend her 16/1 victory as an outsider in the Mares Hurdle?
We have had some chop and changes on the exchange that would currently lead to thinking the latter option.
Goose’s thoughts on Marie’s Rock-
Any antepost backers of Marie’s Rock have been going through an absolute rollercoaster of emotions the past few months, with connections starting off as 95% Mares Hurdle as the target to the recent talk of her pretty much seeming set for the Stayers Hurdle on the Thursday. It seems as though a larger force than any of us must have their bollocks on the line though as the deluge of rain Cheltenham has been hit with, with more forecast, has meant the conditions for the opening day of the festival could very well come up soft. This along with no guarantee the latter end of the week will be any better ground has meant that the prospect of Marie’s Rock defending her title in the Mares on Tuesday has increasing chance of occurring which would explain the exchange movement for her.
On Thursday at around 5:15pm she was sitting at 8.0 on the exchange, which saw some support into 6.8 by 8:40pm that evening. After the rain had hit early hours of Friday she had shortened once more into around 5.4 at 8:40am and by 10:30am after a couple more hours of rain, she was sitting pretty at 3.75 on the exchange, making her the favourite. She is currently sitting at around 4.4 on the exchange for the Mares making her joint favourite with Honeysuckle and has subsequently drifted to 14.0 on the exchange for the Stayers. As with all things nothing is currently set and that will come tomorrow when Tuesday declarations open but one thing is for sure, if they all show up on Tuesday, it could be the race of the week.
Gaelic Warrior- Supreme or Ballymore?
Another talking point is where the champion trainer will send Gaelic Warrior, the Ricci owned 5 year-old is unbeaten in its last 3 runs which could be a stat to prove beneficial..
STAT WATCH ON SUPREME-
23/26 won last-time-out (those that didn’t are 3/26)
11/14 came from top 4 in betting (2 winning favs in last 18 & 3/20 winners were unbeaten)
10/11 won graded novice hurdle before
5&6 year olds won 16/18 (4yo 0/15)
21/28 ran less than 60 days ago
6/9 rated 153+
Mullins (5) & Henderson (3) won 8/10
Ricci & Mullins 3/10
Mullins has 3 of top 4. Facile heads Market & beaten last-time-out
Marine Nationale isn’t a Mullins or Hendo & ran 100 days ago
Impaire et Passe rated 148 & unbeaten to date
Gaelic Warrior won lto, top 4 in betting, won a Graded hurdle lto, 5yo, ran 37 days ago, rated 157, Mullins & Ricci
CHELTENHAM PREVIEW NIGHT THOUGHTS-
The below are some thoughts are selections from some big names in the industry..
FACILE VEGA —Willie Mullins- Nap
FACILE VEGA —Patrick Mullins- Nap
FACILE VEGA —Paul Townend *
MIGHTY POTTER —Jamie Codd
MIGHTY POTTER —Fran Berry
SAMUEL SPADE —Ben Pauling *
ENERGUMENE —Graham Cunningham
EL FABIOLO —DARYL JACOB
JONBON — Nick Schofield
GERRI C — JESS STAFFORD
GERRI C — Zoey Bird
GERRI C — FRANK Hickey
GERRI C — Lewis Tomlinson
EPATANTE— Luke Morris
SHARJAH — Daryl Carter
LOSSIEMOUTH— Mark Milligan
*one of their best chances
Horses the team are monitoring today-
Algo:
Posted in Discord Group.
NTN:
2:25 SANDOWN (Imperial Cup) Looks like a race for a proper mudlark! Heart says Givega 7/1 as he has a lot of talent but question marks over his rating and ground a possible worry. Metier 8/1 loves the ground and a top form expert has been onto me this morning to say this is too good an opportunity to pass up at 8’s but we have doubts about the form. Snowden likes HARDY DU SEUIL 14/1 who looks a good value play as will enjoy the ground & appreciate the overnight rain. Also had the current fave Iceo behind him. The Skelton’s have won this with Langer Dan and PLAYFUL SAINT will also love the ground, trip no issue, has good form 2,1,4,2,1 & only found Love Envoi too good last time. Whilst we think any of the above will go well we’re siding with PLAYFUL SAINT 13/2 Ew but would put a saver in HDS 14/1! Good luck!
Goose:
Competitive renewal of the Lady Wulfruna however it may be worth siding with last years winner in TINKER TOY (4/1). He’s had 3 races during the winter after a long break from winning last years contest and whilst none have resulted in a win he has had to give weight to some high class rivals, and arguably hasn’t been racing over his preferred trip. His form over 7F reads 113821 whilst his 6F and mile form is 54 & 162 respectively which means the return to 7F will definitely suit today and he also isn’t having to give weight to all his rivals (just the 2 mares). Angel Bleu is top class on his day but is untested on the surface and this will most definitely be a pipe opener for bigger turf prizes during the flat season ahead.
Kurtis:
TAPIT TRICE - 13/8 in the Tampa Bay Derby - Quality Todd Pletcher horse who is having his prep run for Kentucky Derby, seems a very winnable race which should set him in good stead for early May
Football-
Key pointers for the week:
Lineker dropped from BBC for controversial tweet.
Chelsea go against current form to beat Dortmund to progress in Champions League.
More antics with Kyle Walker on boozy night out..
XLAX:
Victor Osimhen to score anytime at odds of 12/5.
Napoli will be looking to bounce back after losing last week and ending an 8 straight league winning run.
Osimhen is the top scorer in the Serie A with 19 goals, nearly double anyone else. The fact 0 are from penalties is even more impressive. To find the last time he went two games in a row without scoring a goal you would have to go back to September 7th!
The talented forward averages a goal every 93 minutes and Napoli average 2.3 goals per game. To top all the above, he also scored in the reverse fixture this season.
FPL-
Double gameweek! We’ve covered the bases with Brentford & Brighton with our Wildcard last week, although taking out Ward, Salah, Nunez & White hurt! All part of the strategy to maximise this week so hopefully it pays off. It’s worth looking a couple of weeks ahead as it’s going to mix things up. Team below & last min captain pick!
Best of luck as always and remember - it is US vs BOOKMAKERS!!
Regards,
The Algo Academy
